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Geopolitical risk has become a near-permanent fixture of macro commentary — trade tensions, shifting alliances, and competition over critical resources all feature regularly in market narratives. The challenge for macro investors is not noticing these events, but correctly classifying them.Many geopolitical headlines produce short-term volatility ...

Through much of 2025, major central banks moved largely in step, cutting rates in response to easing inflation and softening growth. That synchronization appears to be giving way to divergence in 2026. Some institutions are signaling a pause or an end to their easing cycles, ...

Energy markets have re-emerged as a central variable in the 2026 macro picture. After a period of relative calm, renewed volatility in oil and gas prices is feeding through to headline inflation figures across major economies, complicating the picture for policymakers who had hoped the ...