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While equity markets obsess over the Federal Reserve and headline crude benchmarks, the ultimate leading indicator for sticky inflation is quietly trading in the middle distillate complex. NYMEX Heating Oil (HO)—the financial benchmark for diesel—is the literal fuel of global commerce.The HO crack spread measures ...

Excerpt: For a year the question was how far central banks would cut. Now they don't even agree on direction.For most of 2025, the only question was how far central banks would cut. In 2026 the question changed — and they stopped agreeing on the ...

Excerpt: For fifteen years the developed world borrowed as if money were free. That era is over — and the largest sovereign borrower is now actively managing the cost of its own debt.For fifteen years, the developed world borrowed as if money were free. Near-zero ...